Contributed by: Dennis Fortier, President, Medical Care Corporation
There is a lot of recent press suggesting that a brain scan may be useful in predicting Alzheimer's disease.
The excitement has been generated by a new study showing that a good read on the size and shape of particular portions of the brain, can be useful in predicting which patients, among a group with subtle symptoms of memory loss, will develop Alzheimer's disease.
The journalists at MSNBC, provide a good example of how the concept of "predicting" is frequently misused in the press, when they are actually writing about "identifying". Almost invariably, the confusion between predicting and identifying Alzheimer's, is coupled with the misleading notion that subtle symptoms of memory loss sometimes "progress" to Alzheimer's.
I want to untangle these various notions, and offer a clear summary of what I think these journalists are trying to convey.
Mild Cognitive Impairment
When a person has mild symptoms of memory loss that are more severe than those we expect with normal aging, but not severe enough to qualify as dementia, we describe their condition as "mild cognitive impairment" (MCI). By definition, MCI is not a part of normal aging. This means that it is caused by some underlying medical condition such as vascular disease, a thyroid disorder, depression or a number of other causes. It might also be due to early stage Alzheimer's disease.
Predicting vs. Identifying
The key point is, if you have MCI due to Alzheimer's disease, then you have Alzheimer's disease. There is no need to predict, only to identify. There is no concept of "progression", the disease is already present.
So, the recent study that has generated much press, is a good study with a potentially valuable conclusion. When a person has mild cognitive symptoms that we call MCI, and a physician must diagnose the correct cause of the symptoms in order to administer appropriate treatment, the ability to identify Alzheimer's disease as the cause (or not the cause), is very important. If a scan of brain structure is valuable in this regard, then we have gotten better at diagnosing this terrible disease.
We have not, however, found a new way to predict anything. Only a new way to better identify a disease that is already present.
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